Other sources of information for this analysis are available through the links included in the text. The low and high scenarios make different assumptions about fertility: In the high scenario, total fertility is 0.5 births above the total fertility in the medium scenario in the low scenario, it is 0.5 births below the medium scenario. The medium scenario projection is the median of many thousands of simulations. The estimates produced by the UN are based on “all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration” and do not include the areas separately listed by the UN as “China, Hong Kong SAR” “China, Macau SAR” or “China, Taiwan Province of China.”īecause future levels of fertility and mortality are inherently uncertain, the UN uses probabilistic methods to account for both the past experiences of a given country and the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. This Pew Research Center analysis is primarily based on the World Population Prospects 2022 report by the United Nations.
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